13/07/2026 9:20 AMUne victoire militaire peut-elle produire une fragilisation diplomatique?
Il y a des guerres que l’on gagne sur le terrain, mais dont les conséquences politiques restent beaucoup plus difficiles à maîtriser. C’est peut-être l’une des grandes leçons de la guerre récente avec l’Iran.
Sur le plan militaire, les États-Unis...
06/07/2026 11:32 AMLe vrai message du bari
Il y a des moments où les marchés disent tout haut ce que les diplomaties préfèrent dire à demi-mot. La récente baisse du prix du pétrole en fait partie. Elle ne signifie pas que le Moyen-Orient est entré dans une période de paix. Elle ne signifie pas non plus que le risque iranien a disparu. Mais elle...
30/06/2026 11:54 AMMoyen-Orient: Téhéran perd la main au Liban
L'accord initial conclu entre Israël et le Liban à l'issue des négociations facilitées par les États-Unis ne saurait être perçu uniquement comme une question bilatérale. Il s'agit également d'un message. Un communiqué destiné au Hezbollah, un message adressé à l'Iran et,...
29/06/2026 7:09 AMMiddle East: Two Tracks, Two Doctrines
Sometimes, inside an American administration, the real divisions are not expressed openly. Officially, everyone is aligned behind the president. Officially, there is only one strategy, one line, one diplomacy. But in reality, files often speak more clearly than official statements.
This is what we...
24/06/2026 11:27 AMEl ocaso del eje de la resistencia: cómo el colapso de Siria e Irán redibuja el tablero de Oriente Medi
La reconfiguración del orden político en Oriente Medio ha alcanzado un punto de inflexión histórico tras los recientes cambios estructurales en Siria y la profunda degradación interna de la República Islámica de Irán.
Este...
22/06/2026 7:47 AMThe Iranian Theorem
By signing a memorandum of understanding with Tehran, Washington has ended a four-month war. On paper, the text can be read as an American victory: a ceasefire, the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an Iranian commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons, and a 60-day negotiation window. So the White House can...
18/06/2026 12:43 PMU.S.–Iran Deal: The Victory of Survival
There are agreements that end a war. And there are agreements that simply move the battlefield. The one that could be signed between the United States and Iran likely belongs to the latter category.
"Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claims that a final text has been found and that a...
18/06/2026 9:12 AMEl plan oculto tras la paz en Iran:Por qué Israel y Estados ya dise diseñan la estocada final
La prolongación del conflicto armado en Oriente Medio generaría un impacto asimétrico irreversible, donde Irán sufriría una implosión estructural interna mientras que las potencias occidentales e Israel capitalizarían la guerra...
16/06/2026 5:54 PMRilettura strategica delle equazioni militari e diplomatiche ai confini occidentali dell'Iran
1. Deterrenza difensiva e ostacoli a un'invasione di terra dai confini occidentali
L'assenza di un'azione militare di terra contro l'Iran attraverso i suoi confini occidentali è dettata da due fattori chiave: fortificazioni e prontezza al...
31/05/2026 12:28 PMThe Strong Shekel: Paradox of an Economy at Wa
There is something almost counterintuitive in the current Israeli economic situation.
Israel is facing war with Iran, permanent tension on the Lebanese front, uncertainty in Gaza, regional instability, and political pressure from abroad — and yet the shekel is extremely strong against...
25/05/2026 10:51 AMWhile waiting for the agreement?
Given the latest available evidence, an imminent agreement would probably not yet be a peace, but rather a strategic truce dressed up as a political accord. The information refers to a text including an extension of the ceasefire by 60 days, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the...
21/05/2026 7:35 PMThe War of Time: Iran Has Already Lost?
All the media, political experts and analysts claim that Iran excels in the art of negotiations and that the more time passes, the more it seems to be a victory for Iran against the United States.
The narrative of “Iran wins by negotiating” is based on a classic miscalculation: it...
20/05/2026 1:56 PMSperavamo di non vedere più i crocieristi della Global Sumud Flottila veleggiare per il Mediterraneo in cerca di visibilità e notorietà ma purtroppo le speranza si sono infrante davanti alla poco edificante realtà.
Ancora una volta metalmeccanici, giornalisti, medici, avvocati hanno trovato modo di ricavarsi giorni e settimane di...
27/04/2026 9:25 AMIran After the Mullahs: When the Revolution Devours Its Cleric
What the US-Israel war may have ended is not the Islamic Republic as a state. It is the theocracy that has structured it since 1979. In its place emerges another order: harder, colder, and also more readable. No longer a regime dominated by the clerics, but a revolutionary...
24/04/2026 10:42 AMTra Clausewitz e Sun Tzu: la fine delle gerarchie e l’ascesa dell’interdipendenza strategica
Abbiamo letto con attenzione i recenti interventi del già Ambasciatore in Giordania, in Libia e a Malta, nonché accreditatissimo esperto delle questioni riguardanti le regioni dell’Asia a noi prossime, Kanwal Sibal Trigunayat e, più...
15/04/2026 8:07 PMMissile iraniano con traiettoria anomala su Gerusalemme
Analisi cinematica della traiettoria di un vettore iraniano osservato nei pressi di Gerusalemme il 1°marzo 2026
a cura di Silverio Allocca e Davide Racca
Introduzione
Il presente lavoro si propone, riprendendo analiticamente in esame quanto già evidenziato diversi giorni...
13/04/2026 12:15 PMTras el fracaso de las negociaciones. Trump anuncia el inicio de un bloqueo naval en el estrecho de Ormuz. Ius ad bellum
En la actual sociedad líquida, el Estrecho de Ormuz ha dejado de ser un simple canal geográfico para convertirse en un nodo de incertidumbre global donde las estructuras del derecho internacional se diluyen frente...
12/04/2026 8:39 AMMoyen-Orient: la trêve USA-Iran. Concession réelle ou respiration stratégique ?
Il faut se méfier des mots rapides. Appeler la séquence actuelle un « cessez-le-feu » ne signifie pas encore que l’on soit entré dans une logique de paix. Ce que Washington et Téhéran ont accepté ressemble moins à une réconciliation qu’à...
12/04/2026 6:17 AMWith the suspension of the 39-day war on the night of April 7-8, 2026, many questions and concerns have arisen among Middle Eastern populations and international observers. The main question is: does this ceasefire represent a temporary pause in the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran, or a definitive end to the conflict?
In...
06/04/2026 10:22 AMIl finto Armageddon in Medio Oriente
Nella relazione sulla Strategia di Sicurezza Nazionale USA del novembre 2025, sono stati messi in chiaro gli obiettivi militari e geostrategici, senza quindi rimanere meravigliati dalle azioni attuali in Iran che sono coerenti con quanto stabilito strategicamente: L’Iran – la principale...