With the suspension of the 39-day war on the night of April 7-8, 2026, many questions and concerns have arisen among Middle Eastern populations and international observers. The main question is: does this ceasefire represent a temporary pause in the war between Israel, the United States, and Iran, or a definitive end to the conflict?
In my opinion, based on the opinions of many international experts and analysts, this ceasefire appears to be temporary. I will explain this through five key points:
1. The nature of the war:
This conflict did not begin suddenly: it has long existed in diplomatic and economic forms. In particular, after Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency in 2025, and in coordination with Israel, the situation has degenerated into a missile conflict, with drones and air strikes, similar to the 12-Day War of the summer of 2025.
This two-week ceasefire is like a pause in a football match: not the end of the match. This is neither a final agreement nor a permanent peace. The United States could use this period to further prepare, manage domestic political opposition, and build strong international support, especially from NATO and its European allies.
Therefore, I believe this conflict in the Middle East will continue, as neither the United States nor Israel are willing to ease pressure on Iran due to their strategic interests.
2. Iran as a nuclear threat:
One of the primary objectives of the United States and Israel is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. They are demanding that Iran subject its uranium to international scrutiny to monitor its use.
If uranium enrichment reaches approximately 90%, it could be used to produce nuclear weapons, which would pose a serious regional threat.
3. What is uranium?
Uranium is a naturally occurring element on Earth. If enriched to approximately 90%, it can be used to create nuclear weapons. However, at levels of 3-5%, it is used for electricity generation.
Iran has long been accused of secretly attempting to reach 90% enrichment to acquire the capacity to produce nuclear weapons and alter the regional balance of power.
For example, India has a population and military force far superior to Pakistan’s, but the latter’s possession of nuclear weapons creates a balance of power between the two countries.
In my opinion, the current Iranian regime will never accept restrictions on its nuclear program. At most, it might temporarily slow enrichment to buy time, but it will continue to build its capabilities.
4. The role of militia groups in the region:
Iran supports numerous militia groups throughout the Middle East, which increases pressure from the United States and Israel. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi forces in Yemen, and several groups in Iraq.
These groups pose a threat to regional security and US interests. During the war, they launched drone and missile attacks against the Gulf States, Israel, and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG).
Iran is unlikely to abandon these groups, as it has invested billions in them and uses them as proxy forces to defuse direct military confrontation.
5. The Strait of Hormuz:
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important economic and energy routes. It lies between Iran and Oman and is a key chokepoint for global oil transport.
During the war, Iran closed this strait, causing significant damage to the regional and global economy. Now it is being used as a tool of pressure.
The United States aims to reduce Iranian control over this strategic waterway, while Iran is determined not to lose this leverage.
Conclusion:
Due to all these factors, the likelihood of a permanent peace agreement is very low. Future military actions between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain highly likely, which could even lead to major changes in the current Iranian regime.
By Arif Bawecani
